# Useful ideas | Idea | | | -------------------------- | ------------------------------------------------------------ | | [[Bayes' theorem]] | Evidence shifts your prior; it doesn't replace it | | [[Bounded Rationality]] | Most bad decisions are rational responses to incomplete information | | [[Ergodic Hypothesis]] | Time average ≠ ensemble average; what matters is your path | | [[Kelly Criterion]] | Size bets proportionally to edge; never bet everything | | [[Little's Law]] | Cycle time = work in progress / throughput | | [[Lognormal Distribution]] | Mean > median; estimates underpredict because tails are long | | [[Power laws]] | A few items carry most of the weight; averages are meaningless | | [[System of Profound Knowledge]] | Four lenses; most failures come from picking up the wrong one | | [[Theory of Constraints]] | System output is limited by one bottleneck; fix that first |