# Year one _The spreadsheet averages across scenarios. You experience one path through time._ --- Your commercial director presents the growth plan. New hires, a new market, a new product tier. The model runs three scenarios. | | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | |---|---|---|---| | Strong | £15m | £20m | £25m | | Base | £13m | £16m | £20m | | Slow | £12m | £14m | £15m | Revenue today is £10m. The average year three outcome is £20m, the same as the base case. It stacks up. You want to back it. --- Year one comes in at £11m, a million short of even the slow case. Hiring took longer than planned, the new market ramped late, the pipeline converted slower. Each miss was modest. From £11m, here's what the remaining two years need to deliver. | Year 3 target | Required growth per year | |---|---| | £15m (slow) | ~17% | | £20m (base) | ~35% | | £25m (strong) | ~51% | The base case assumed roughly 25% annual growth. Hitting it now requires 35%. --- Year two is a genuine recovery. Thirty percent growth, well above what the base case planned. You reach £14.3m. The board is relieved. | Year 3 target | Required Y3 growth | |---|---| | £15m (slow) | ~5% | | £20m (base) | ~40% | | £25m (strong) | ~75% | The plan assumed 25%. You delivered 30%, and the growth rate you need next year went up, not down. Hitting the base case in year three now requires 40%. The strong case needs 75%. One slow start, one strong recovery, and two of the three paths are still out of reach. --- The next growth plan lands on your desk. Same model, same three scenarios, same expected return. This time you start with year one. ---